ATO’s DraftKings best-value list hit on 4 of 5 picks for Monday, November 2, averaging 5.0 points per $1,000. The 134 other eligible players averaged 3.16, with 69 of 134 beating the hit line (51%).
What we graded
A hit means a player’s DraftKings points per $1,000 beat the median of everyone else in that night’s eligible pool: 2.84.
We graded the list published October 27, shown unchanged through tip. The scheduled pre-tip refresh failed, so the list was never rebuilt with later information. We graded exactly what readers saw. That failure belongs alongside the results, because readers were working from those projections.
The selection rule ranked projected DraftKings points times chance to play, divided by salary per $1,000. Players needed an 80%+ chance to play and 15+ projected minutes. We took one per game, then the top 5 from the 10-game main slate.
Monday, November 2 · Opening night, 10 games
4 of 5 hit · bar 2.84 per $1K| # | Player | Salary | Proj | Actual | Per $1K | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tylik WeeksMEM · F · MEM @ ISU 7:00 PM ET$3,700 · proj 23.7 | $3,700 | 23.7 | 18.8 | 5.07 | Hit |
| 2 | Jack WhitbournFORD · F · FORD @ KU 8:00 PM ET$3,100 · proj 20.9 | $3,100 | 20.9 | 12.8 | 4.11 | Hit |
| 3 | Sebastian WilkinsDUKE · G/F · ARMY @ DUKE 6:30 PM ET$3,000 · proj 16.9 | $3,000 | 16.9 | 17.0 | 5.67 | Hit |
| 6 | Darius BivinsSTMRY · G · ILLST @ STMRY 10:00 PM ET$3,000 · proj 16.5 | $3,000 | 16.5 | 24.0 | 8.00 | Hit |
| 9 | LJ SmithOSU · G · OSU @ BYU 9:00 PM ET$3,000 · proj 15.3 | $3,000 | 15.3 | 6.5 | 2.17 | Miss |
What counts as a hit. A listed player is a hit when his DraftKings points per $1,000 of salary beat the median of everyone else who met the same rules that night. The bar for each night is shown on its row. A player who does not play scores 0 and is a miss. Every player on every frozen list is counted.
What hit
Darius Bivins was the best of the five. At $3,000, he scored 24.0 DraftKings points for 8.0 per $1,000, clearing the 2.84 hit line. Our projection was 16.5, so he also beat what we expected from him.
The group’s 5.0 average compared favorably with the rest of the eligible pool’s 3.16. All five cost $3,000 to $3,700.
What missed
LJ Smith cost $3,000 and scored 6.5 DraftKings points. His 2.17 per $1,000 fell below the 2.84 line, making him the list’s lone miss. We projected 15.4 points. The result fell short of both that expectation and the value benchmark.
Smith was under 1% owned in the contest we checked. Low ownership offered no protection from a poor score, and his salary alone did not make him useful value.
What we learned
A value hit can still expose a projection miss. We ran high on Weeks, projecting 23.7 against 18.75 scored, and Whitbourn, projecting 20.9 against 12.75. We ran low on Bivins.
The low-owned hits deserve attention, too. Whitbourn and Wilkins were each under 1% owned in the 1,783-entry, 20-entry-max contest we checked; Wilkins scored 17.0. Those results support looking beyond popular plays, but one night is a small sample. These remain leans.
Tuesday’s best-value list applies the same rule to the 8-game slate.
Listed players averaged 15.8 DK points against 18.7 projected (5.00 points per $1,000; the rest of the pool averaged 3.16). 0 listed players did not play and count as misses.
What counts as a hit. A listed player is a hit when his DraftKings points per $1,000 of salary beat the median of everyone else who met the same rules that night. The bar for each night is shown on its row. A player who does not play scores 0 and is a miss. Every player on every frozen list is counted.