ATO's Tuesday, November 3 CBB DraftKings value list finished with 9 of 10 hits, and all ten played. Our ten averaged 5.63 DK points per $1,000, compared with 3.14 for the 75 other eligible players, of whom 39 beat the line (52%).
What we graded
A hit meant scoring more DK points per $1,000 than the median of the other eligible players. Tuesday's line was 2.86. A player who did not play would score 0.
We froze the list at 5:10 PM ET before the 6:00 PM ET first tip on the 8-game main slate, then graded it exactly as frozen.
The rule: projected DK points times chance to play, per $1,000. Eligibility required an 80%+ chance to play and 15+ projected minutes. We took the top 10, with at most two players per game.
Tuesday, November 3 · Tuesday, 8 games
9 of 10 hit · bar 2.86 per $1K| # | Player | Salary | Proj | Actual | Per $1K | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mo DioubateLSU · F · UNO @ LSU 8:00 PM ET$3,000 · proj 27.1 | $3,000 | 27.1 | 17.0 | 5.67 | Hit |
| 2 | Tarris BouieBAMA · F · SHSU @ BAMA 7:30 PM ET$3,000 · proj 18.9 | $3,000 | 18.9 | 30.2 | 10.08 | Hit |
| 3 | Michael RuzicLSU · F · UNO @ LSU 8:00 PM ET$3,600 · proj 23.1 | $3,600 | 23.1 | 29.0 | 8.06 | Hit |
| 4 | Isaac JohnsonMANN · F · MANN @ UK 7:00 PM ET$3,700 · proj 25.0 | $3,700 | 25.0 | 7.0 | 1.89 | Miss |
| 5 | Mason WilliamsUK · G · MANN @ UK 7:00 PM ET$3,000 · proj 16.7 | $3,000 | 16.7 | 13.5 | 4.50 | Hit |
| 8 | Brandon GarrisonBAMA · F · SHSU @ BAMA 7:30 PM ET$3,000 · proj 14.7 | $3,000 | 14.7 | 23.0 | 7.67 | Hit |
| 10 | Nolan AdekunleUVA · F · DREXE @ UVA 7:30 PM ET$3,000 · proj 13.9 | $3,000 | 13.9 | 14.2 | 4.75 | Hit |
| 12 | Davion ThompsonARK · G · UAPB @ ARK 8:00 PM ET$3,700 · proj 16.3 | $3,700 | 16.3 | 17.8 | 4.80 | Hit |
| 13 | David SimonovicDREXE · F · DREXE @ UVA 7:30 PM ET$3,000 · proj 13.5 | $3,000 | 13.5 | 15.0 | 5.00 | Hit |
| 16 | Joe SaylerSDSU · G · SDSU @ KSU 8:00 PM ET$5,000 · proj 24.0 | $5,000 | 24.0 | 19.5 | 3.90 | Hit |
What counts as a hit. A listed player is a hit when his DraftKings points per $1,000 of salary beat the median of everyone else who met the same rules that night. The bar for each night is shown on its row. A player who does not play scores 0 and is a miss. Every player on every frozen list is counted.
What hit
Tarris Bouie was the best of the ten. At $3,000, the Alabama player scored 30.25 DK points against an 18.9 projection, returning 10.08 per $1,000.
Brandon Garrison also beat his projection for Alabama: 23.0 DK points against 14.7, good for 7.67 per $1,000. LSU's Michael Ruzic scored 29.0 against 23.1 projected, returning 8.06 per $1,000 at $3,600.
Tuesday's update added 18 exhibition box scores before the freeze. The exhibition-informed newcomers all hit: Bouie and Ruzic, plus Mason Williams, Nolan Adekunle, Davion Thompson and David Simonovic. That group cleared the value line even though Williams scored 13.5 against a 16.7 projection.
What missed
Isaac Johnson was the only miss, and the gap deserves attention. At $3,700, the Manhattan player scored 7.0 DK points against a 25.0 projection. His 1.89 points per $1,000 fell below the 2.86 line.
We had flagged his 84% chance to play and Manhattan having no exhibition box score. Johnson played, so availability did not explain the miss. The 25.0 projection still ran well ahead of his 7.0 result.
Two hits also came in well under projection. Mo Dioubate scored 17.0 against 27.1 projected, returning 5.67 per $1,000. Joe Sayler scored 19.5 against 24.0, returning 3.9. Both cleared the grading line. Those hits still count, and those projection misses still need to stay visible.
Who played them
Our ten picks were drafted at rates from 0% to 9.61% in the 1,426-entry contest and from 0% to 8.86% in the 1,783-entry contest, the slate’s two largest classic contests. Joe Sayler led our list at 9.61% and 8.86%, followed by Mo Dioubate at 8.06% and 8.81%, respectively. Both were hits, but they were also the two hits that fell furthest under their projections.
The best score among our ten came from Tarris Bouie: 30.25 DK points at 0.56% and 1.35% ownership. Brandon Garrison scored 23.0 at 1.96% and 1.85%. David Simonovic scored 15.0, also a hit, with 0% ownership in both contests. The low-owned hits were there, though Simonovic helped no lineup in either field.
Isaac Johnson, our one miss, was lightly drafted too: 0.35% and 1.57%. The takeaway is to give the lightly drafted names a look alongside the popular picks: Bouie supplied our best score, but one slate across two contests is a small sample.
What we learned
The projections ran low on Bouie and Garrison, with Ruzic also beating his number. They ran high on Dioubate and Sayler, while Johnson was the only player to fall below the value line. A 9 of 10 value record does not erase those gaps.
Opening night's 4 of 5 and Tuesday's 9 of 10 put the running record at 13 of 15. Two nights is a small sample. We'll keep showing the frozen picks beside the results. The next list is still a set of leans.
Listed players averaged 17.7 DK points against 19.1 projected (5.42 points per $1,000; the rest of the pool averaged 3.15). 0 listed players did not play and count as misses.
What counts as a hit. A listed player is a hit when his DraftKings points per $1,000 of salary beat the median of everyone else who met the same rules that night. The bar for each night is shown on its row. A player who does not play scores 0 and is a miss. Every player on every frozen list is counted.