Six of seven games on Thursday Nov 5’s CBB DraftKings main slate project as lopsided. That makes minutes the deciding question when paying $6,500 and up: a favourite’s starters can sit late, while an underdog’s best players often keep playing. Start your premium builds with the minutes you trust.
How we measure chalk
Our projected ownership comes from a CBB ownership model fitted on real FanDuel college basketball Classic fields from 2023-24, then applied to DraftKings salaries. We have no DraftKings CBB contest results to fit it on yet. Treat these percentages as a guide to popularity, not measured ownership.
Each player has at most one regular season game in the current sample, the Nov 2 opener. We put last season’s production beside it because one game cannot settle a role. Projected value means projected DK points per $1,000 of salary; use it to compare what you are paying for.
Below $6,500, popular players are covered in our Thursday value article; use that piece for your cheaper slots.
Premium chalk worth trusting
TJ Power: the strongest starting point
At $6,700 and 35.6% projected ownership, Power leads premium chalk in popularity and projected value: 31.0 DK points, or 4.63 per $1,000, in 35.1 minutes. Penn has not played yet, but last season he averaged 33.9 DK points in 35.3 minutes over 29 games, reaching 40.3 over his last 10. Penn projects to lose by 30 at Illinois, a setup that usually protects its best player’s minutes. Make Power your first premium consideration.
Rueben Chinyelu: production without a full workload
Chinyelu’s $8,600 salary buys a 32.3 DK projection in 26.7 minutes, with 30.9% projected ownership. His opener delivered 32.5 in 29 minutes, following 34.75 in 33 exhibition minutes; last season he averaged 29.5 in 24.8 minutes over 33 games. His 3.76 projected value leads chalk priced at $8,000 and up. Florida projects to win by 31, but his projection already assumes 26.7 minutes. Prioritize him when paying up for Florida.
Jeremy Fears Jr.: a stronger history behind the opener
Fears produced 33.25 DK points in 26 opener minutes, beating his 31.4 projection despite playing fewer than his projected 29.2 minutes. Last season’s 34.4 DK average in 32.2 minutes over 32 games, plus 36.8 over his last 10, supports the lean at $9,400 and 20.6% projected ownership. Michigan State’s projected 24 point win is the least lopsided among the big favourites. Keep Fears in your premium guard builds.
Ivan Kharchenkov: upside with a price attached
Kharchenkov opened with 55.0 DK points in 38 minutes, far above last season’s 22.0 in 27.7 minutes over 34 games. His exhibitions produced 33.25, 39.5 and 25.0, while ATO projects 26.8 in 33.2 minutes. At $8,900 and 16.6% projected ownership, he offers a less popular route through this group, though Arizona’s projected 35 point win threatens that workload. Include him for upside, but build around the 26.8 projection rather than chasing 55.0.
Thomas Haugh: trust the player, respect the salary
Haugh costs a slate high $10,000 and projects for 35.4 DK points, with the premium group’s highest projected floor at 20.2. His opener brought 47.0 in 38 minutes, compared with last season’s 32.1 in 33.4 minutes over 32 games. At 33.3% projected ownership, the concern is paying for 35.6 projected minutes in a game Florida projects to win by 31. Use Haugh when your build can support that salary and workload risk.
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